Will LENR reach mass adoption faster than any other tech?

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This post was also published on E-Cat World


You often hear that new technologies spread to reach global mass adoption at an ever increasing speed — from electricity, telephones, radio and television to PCs, mobile phones and the web.

The hypothesis seems accurate and also reasonable, given that the world is getting increasingly connected in several ways, both with regard to communications, transportation and commerce, but it’s actually not correct.

You can read about such a claim in an article on The Vox from 2014, and also how it was debunked by Gizmodo.

One reason for this mechanism not to be so simple is that different technologies rely on different conditions and requirements.

The refrigerator was an invention that basically only had to be manufactured and distributed. Electricity and telephones required deployment of new wide area networks, whereas, radio and television only needed wireless networks with long reaching transmitter stations.

Cellular phones needed a much denser wireless network, and the internet, if you count from the first message over the Arpanet, needed a whole lot of new thinking in order to arrive at the idea of www, and then develop from there.

So where do we put LENR based technologies in that picture?

Assuming that we arrive at a validated heat producing technology within a year, huge interest will arrise and it shouldn’t take much time for scientists to make all kinds of measurements and arrive at a theory that describes the phenomenon in detail.

At that point you have access to an energy source with a fuel consumption potentially shrunk by a factor one million compared to chemical fuels. That corresponds to a jump of 40 years in computing technology, based on Moore’s Law. And there you have the incentive for investing engineering resources to solve problems and develop applications.

The most obvious application is water heating, and even though we know the difficulties to get the technology certified for consumer use, consumer devices for this purpose could not be far off.

Such an application would be similar to the refrigerator that went mainstream in the US in less than ten years in the 1930’s. 90 years later this process could be significantly accelerated. What you need is manufacturing, distribution and a service network.

What happens next contains many unknowns. Possibilities of direct conversion to electricity. Strategies of the car industry. Desperate competition from other technologies. Governmental policies on taxes and regulation.

But essentially, compared to other recent technologies that have reached mass adoption, deployment is straight forward. No need for new networks. No new infrastructure.

What will be needed is innovation. Lots of innovation. To scale the technology down, and up. To develop new applications. The time scale is unpredictable, but again, there’s no basic need for infrastructure.

Given the emergency with which the world needs a clean energy source — almost as in a classic disaster movie — and given the potential cost savings LENR could bring to many industries, I can see no reason to believe that LENR based technology in its basic forms couldn’t reach global mass adoption very fast, maybe faster than any other technology so far.

Which would mean about 15 years from now.

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18 comments

  1. Ok Mats. Talking about horses, did you hear it directly from the horse´s mouth that there is a revision of the Lugano report coming up? Did the horse also say when that woud be? It really is about time …

    And another thing, the “Notify me of new comments via email” thing seems to be broken.

  2. It was referred to the comment that Cimpy posted on my matslew blog, with a link to the comment posted here below.

  3. Mats, I think that you are sligthly confused – again. CimPy did not say any of the things that you attribute to him. For instance, the “sorry” part was from me, the reason being the ludicrous comment preceding mine.

  4. Don’t feel sorry for me CimPy — I like my horses 😀
    And bring out your math. Check how much COP changes with a higher emissivity.
    The report will be updated, and I would expect the emissivity issue to be addressed.
    You still have time to change your bet.

  5. If Rossi is involved then I think you are on the money. However there is also some real science involved and I pray they have success.

  6. “They are much cuter”
    And more impressive, too.
    😀
    Mats, you’re still supporting this fraud? How long will you keep on?

  7. My pink, invisible, flying unicorns (PIFU, TM) will gain acceptance faster than LENR. They are much cuter.

  8. And, by the way “This summer (put some big name here) will make that an official position” has been already seen more than once in last years. It’s fusion who insisted on not appear – what a pity!

  9. “Useful LENRgy is emergent,This summer the U.S. government will make that an official position”

    Right. If not backed up by reality and the laws of nature, just make it a policy.

    Nothing new.

  10. Matt,

    H.G. Branzel, Mr. Irony, CymPy, and to some degree Tyy are off the mark. Useful LENRgy is emergent,This summer the U.S. government will make that an official position. The fact of the matter is, after 24+ years of research the learning curve is undergoing an exponential shift towards understanding the low energy nuclear reactive environment.

    Anyone who studies the science, the patents, NASA/NARI LENR contracts and presentations, and who participates in viewing live open source LENR lab reactors in action at quantumheat.org knows that LENRergy is useful, immediately applicable, and emergent along many fronts. Rossi has certainly been a catalyst in all of this and more. The race to commercial “cold fusion” energy is in the final heat.

    Know what you know and know what it is that you don’t know. Ignorance is OK when you realize that you really want to learn something. Yet ignorance is also no excuse for comments that would never ever muster peer review no matter how strongly they are asserted..

    “Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, and not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science” quote Charles Darwin

    Thanks for the article

  11. first it has to exist. There have been that many fraudulent demonstrations over the past few years real proof is needed not just more hype. If it exists it will provide for all our energy needs and will be adopted very, very quickly.

  12. Supposed LENR-technology has couple of challenges refrigerators did not have. Most importantly, the innovators of refrigerator new exactly how the device worked.

    But nobody have a slightest clue how LENR is supposed to work.

  13. “Will LENR reach mass adoption faster than any other tech?”
    Another “good the same” question is:
    “Will I be able to win a swimming race when I will be able to walk on water as I could claim being able to do since years?”

    Cheers.

  14. Couldn’t agree more with Mr Branzell.
    That’s the reason oil burners, electrical heaters, heat pumps and such never can compete with the safe and trustworthy wood and coal burner we all keep in our basement. All other options needs to be connected to a power outlet for crying out loud.
    Relying on the power grid to heat our houses seems really stupid.
    We wouldn’t want that, now would we?
    Or maybe it will be possible in the future, like in the 20th century or so…

  15. Sorry for raining on your parade Mats, but I cannot agree with what you say in the last sentence of your post. A better wording would be:

    “Which would mean about 15 years after the date when a LENR machine can produce considerable and continuous power without being connected to a wall outlet or a 500 kW diesel generator.”

    In my book this is tantamout to never.

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