[Please continue the discussion on the #2 blog post. This post, with almost 700 comments, has become too slow to load for many users].

[I will update this blog post at the bottom with relevant and sufficiently confirmed information that can be published].

The Rossi-IH affair that broke as news when Andrea Rossi filed a lawsuit on his US licensee Industrial Heat, its representatives Thomas Darden and JT Vaughn, and Darden’s main company, Cherokee Investment Partners in the beginning of April 2016, is getting more and more interesting.

And I want to send out a call to everyone to let us join forces to bringing out the truth in this story, whatever it is, contacting me with any kind of provable information or indication you might have, or supporting people trying to replicate the effect and helping them validate their replications. The outcome is potentially far too important to the world to be settled by lawyers.

The information I have picked up so far is confusing and contradictory. Clearly someone is not telling the whole truth.

I have been elaborating a wide spectrum of hypotheses, ranging between scenarios such as:

• Rossi not being rational, having nothing but yet insisting on running to the bitter end, convinced of the validity of the E-Cat, or at least of being able to convince others that it works, which would include several people, e.g. the ERV Penon, being either completely incompetent or bribed.
• Rossi having COP > 50 and IH knowing this but not being able to replicate, even though Rossi according to the license agreement should have transferred this knowhow, implying that Rossi still has retained some essential part of the method.

As for the pieces of the puzzle:

• It’s well-known that all documented tests of the E-Cat have flaws that potentially makes them include the possibility that it doesn’t work at all. Not much can be added here. However, most of these calculations have been made by people being seemingly convinced that LENR is impossible.
• It’s worth noting that if Rossi was a fraudster and that the E-Cat and the 1MW didn’t produce any excess energy, it would be a piece of cake to take him to court and finish the story there. As Torkel Nyberg ‘Sifferkoll’ pointed out yesterday (well worth reading, indicating why it would be important for IH to save the license agreement, why it still cannot allow to pay $89M, and why it needs to proceed slowly), you certainly don’t need the number one Crisis Control PR Agency APCO Worldwide and the number one US law firm Jones Day to do that. It just doesn’t make sense.
• The person at APCO who was cc:ed when IH sent out its statement was Mr. Brian McLaughlin, who is also mentioned by Sifferkoll.
• I know that Tom Darden has recently met with people I personally know, not far away from me, claiming that the 1MW test was technically and fundamentally flawed and that COP was around 1, that there was no production in the customer’s factory, that the customer didn’t seem trustworthy to them, and that IH has not been able to replicate Rossi’s claims.
• I have strong indications that IH already before the lawsuit knew that Rossi had a working technology but again claimed that they didn’t know how he did it.
• At least one person [Dewey Weaver, see update below] with close connection to Darden, also financially, is contacting key persons around Rossi, trying to convince them that Rossi is a fraudster and that they would be wise to stop collaborating with him or at least be careful not supporting him in any way. The message also includes claims that IH through its investigation continuously discovers deceptive behaviour by Rossi.

This is part of what I know so far. I ask you to draw your own conclusions, and again I ask you to share whatever you know with regard to this story.

Even if we consider the probability very low for LENR to be possible, I urge that you honestly consider two things:

• In case it really works, would you like a possible transition to LENR based energy in the world to be governed mostly by the work and actions of lawyers and lobbyists at APCO Worldwide and Jones Day?
• Admitting that there might be at least a minor possibility that the E-Cat and LENR is valid, on which side would you prefer to be—those who fight for it to be used to get away from fossil fuels and provide cheap and clean energy to everyone on Earth as soon as possible, or those who are trying to stop it, referring to the possibility that Rossi is a fraudster, or at least slow down the transition in order to protect some powerful people’s interests?

Having answered these two questions, you can make up your mind on how you would like to contribute to the outcome of the affair that’s going on. And whatever decision you take, I strongly suggest that we all join forces to bringing out the truth and make this affair and its implications as visible to the world as possible.

I also suggest that all people who are working with replications attempts and believe that they have a positive result, try to validate the result with the help of independent institutions and make them public.

Lastly, I guarantee that I will protect the identity of people who contact me to share sensible information, if that is required. 

We need to do this together.

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UPDATES to this blog post here below.

April 20. Today a comment was published on Rossi’s blog, regarding an individual called John Dewey Weaver, working at the venture capital group Deep River Ventures, in Raleigh, North Carolina. I can confirm that Dewey Weaver is the person I referred to above, with connections to Darden, contacting key persons around Rossi, and I have proof of his activities. We also know that Dewey Weaver signed a document regarding a resolution in the UK based company IH Holdings International Limited, apparently indicating that Deep River Ventures invested in that company. I also have got some specific comments on some of Weaver’s earlier activities in the LENR field and I will try to confirm this and report on them. I would say that what I heard is not very flattering.

April 23. Several companies have been formed in connection with Industrial Heat. This is discussed in Rossi’s lawsuit, and has also been noted on forums and blogs, e.g. E-Cat World. The example discussed there, and also brought up in a comment below, is that a request was filed on October 6, 2014, for Applicant Organization Change from Industrial Heat, Inc. to IPH International BV, regarding the patent application that IH filed for Rossi’s E-Cat on May, 2, 2013 (correct me if I got this wrong). IPH International BV is a Dutch company and one of the defendants in Rossi’s lawsuit. It’s owned by UK based IPHBV Holdings Ltd, which has Francis Thomas Darden II as the enterprise’s solitary managing director form March 26, 2015. IPHBV Holdings Ltd has the same address as IH Holdings International Ltd in the update above.
More (added later April 23): Before being owned by UK based IPHBV Holdings Ltd, IPH International BV was a subsidiary of Texas based NRG Energy Inc, a Fortune 200 company with  business in conventional, solar, wind, thermal and nuclear energy. IPH International BV has the same address, and possible connection to First Names Group and Boart Longyear International BV, which is in turn connected to NRG Energy Inc.
NRG Energy Inc also happens to be a client of Jones Day, the law firm chosen by IH.
All this should, among other things, be seen in the light of the approx $50M investment by UK based Woodford in IH, and that the IH license didn’t cover Europe.

April 23. I have been talking to people having visited the 1MW plant and meeting with the customer during first half of 2015, showing them pictures taken at the registered address for the customer JM Products—7861, 46th Street, Doral, Fl 33166. They say that it looks very much like the place they visited, noting details such as the stairs leading up to the entrance at the back of the building—an area where trucks can load and unload cargo. I and other persons have tried to call the telephone number listed for JM Products, (786) 631-4676, a number that was also written on a business card I have seen, but there was no answer.

April 23. Thought worthy interview with David French, patent attorney from Ottawa, Canada, by Marianne Macy for Infinite Energy Magazine, on Rossi’s lawsuit. Read more here.

April 24. I have received a copy of an electricity statement by Florida Power & Light Company, issued on JM Chemical Products Corp., for the period February 2 until March 2, 2015. The total amount of energy consumed is 7,251 kWh. Depending on when the plant was put in operation for the one-year test (assuming at the latest February 16) this indicates an average consumption of about 10 to 20 kWh per hour. The Service Address on the statement is 7861 NW 46th Street, Doral, FL 33166-5470, which is the same as the official address listed for JM Products, and also where photos were taken that according to visitors to the plant looked like the place they visited. The amount charged is $1,266, while the amount for the previous month was $309, which is about a quarter, possibly indicating some early test activity.
This statement proves that electricity corresponding to what the 1MW plant should have consumed at a successful COP of about 50 has been consumed at the address reportedly being where the test was undertaken. It doesn’t prove any production by the customer, nor anything about the amount of energy produced by the MW plant, and consequently nothing about the COP. My source is not Rossi.
Added (April 25): There was a handwritten note on the bill saying: ‘~1MWh/day, COP 24’.
This could mean that the 28 day statement referred to a situation where electricity was consumed only for about seven days of effective operation in that period.

Andrea Rossi

Some people thought that I was too biased towards Rossi in the hypothesis on the Rossi-IH affair that I presented recently. So, for equilibrium, here’s more or less the opposite hypothesis, based on claims that have reached me from other sources.

– The starting point for this scenario is that either Rossi has achieved LENR reactions with high COP, without ever proving it, or he might have achieved modest efficiency, with COP between 1 and 3, as many others in the field. Over time, in that case, he tended to exaggerate the results, being absolutely convinced that he would obtain increased COP, sooner or later, with changes in the design. Meanwhile he hid the lack of progress with lack of precision in various tests.

Thomas Darden

– In October 2012, Rossi and IH (Industrial Heat LLC) entered a license agreement, on which Rossi was paid $1.5M. The reason for IH to enter the agreement was, a part from the increased credible activity in the LENR field, that several seemingly convincing independent tests had verified the validity of the E-Cat technology, and that it was worth risking the money for getting access to a potentially disruptive energy technology that could change the world and save it from the climate and pollution crisis.

– The 24h Validation Test in May 2013 was apparently successful, and again the amount of $10M was worth risking, giving the potential upside, especially since IH with this sum would get access to the IP and the knowhow of the E-Cat, which Rossi transferred to them as stipulated by the license agreement. Rossi, however, at this occasion maybe kept some essential details for obtaining high COP for himself.

– With the IP in hand, with claims that IH had acquired the IP, and with seemingly successful demonstrations made with Rossi’s assistance, IH could raise funding, e.g. about $50M from UK based Woodford, in addition to about $10M already raised from other investors.

– After a while, however, IH realised that it didn’t manage to obtain Rossi’s effect with the instructions received from him, when performing tests with the help of independent experts (maybe e.g. the team at Brillouin Energy, in which IH also invested). And over time IH concluded that either Rossi didn’t have what he claimed, or he hadn’t given them the complete knowhow. IH was therefore not interested in going ahead with the one-year test stipulated by the license agreement, at least not before having been able to replicate with high COP.

– Rossi still wanted to perform the one-year test, and found a way to set it up. A UK based company, or possibly just some people Rossi knew, formed a local company in Florida, appointing Rossi’s lawyer as president. IH was presented with this plan, and since IH now had low confidence in Rossi, it didn’t care much about what Rossi would do and accepted any suggestion. They also accepted, or didn’t object to, the same ERV as in the 24h Validation Test, although they were not convinced he was the right choice for this task. IH maybe didn’t think that Rossi would obtain any result. Alternatively, IH considered the condition of transferring the knowhow not fulfilled, and therefore they would not have to pay the remaining $89M, even if the one-year test would be successful. Meanwhile, IH used the raised funds for other investments in the LENR field, and kept a low profile on the possibly failed investment in Rossi’s technology.

– The customer company using the energy from the plant (‘JM Chemical Products Inc’ according to the license agreement) should produce products for catalytic applications, but IH soon found out that there was no production activity (maybe the heat from the plant was just absorbed in a dummy load and vented out). IH didn’t want to make too much noise of this finding, and since they argued that the agreement’s conditions weren’t fulfilled, they didn’t act on this fact. Yet they had two representatives always present at the heat plant.

– IH also found flaws in the ERV’s measurements. Again, IH didn’t act on this.

– Meanwhile, IH filed a few patent applications on Rossi’s technology, taking advantage of a change in the US patent law, making it possible under certain conditions to file an application without the inventor signing it. Maybe the filings were simply part of normal business activities in the technology field.

– As the one-year test went on, IH realised that Rossi was convinced of a positive result, and it used the PR and crisis management firm APCO Worldwide to get help on handling a potentially delicate situation. IH also started to reach out to experts in the field, asking for help to understand what secret Rossi might have kept for himself, or alternatively to get information that could help proving that Rossi had nothing. IH also reached out to Rossi who declined to give any further help.

– Meanwhile, Rossi, started to gather information on a lawsuit to be able to defend himself, since he was convinced of a positive result but understood that IH didn’t agree with him.

– The test was completed in February 2016. The ERV compiled a report, which was not very convincing, and delivered it to Rossi and IH. Rossi filed his lawsuit to defend himself. IH kept a low profile, still considering the license agreement to be open but arguing that it didn’t have to pay, at least not until Rossi hadn’t provided all the knowhow needed for a successful high COP replication.

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I must underline that I have not been able to confirm much of this information, except for a few well-known facts, known from the documents in Rossi’s lawsuit.

Neither have I yet seen the ERV report, which could give important perspectives on this scenario. The latest info I have on the report is that it will be released only when the IH-Rossi case will be brought up in court, maybe a month or more from now, which I think is an unfortunate delay.

I have tried to reach Tom Darden and JT Vaughn at IH several times to get comments, but I haven’t got any response.

Rossi strongly denies parts of this scenario, particularly the claim that there wasn’t any activity in the factory and that the ERV’s measurements were non-satisfactory.

Hopefully, we will know what is true when the case will be handled in court.

Summing up my own experiences of the E-Cat technology, I have seen several flaws in the reports on the high temperature ‘Hot Cat’, while I had more confidence in the results from the older E-Cat, on which I made measurements myself at four occasions. The most convincing demonstration, in my opinion, was held on October 6, 2011, when the E-Cat was run in self-sustained mode for almost four hours, with water boiling inside all the time, even though fresh water was input continuously. Here’s my report from the test. And here is the temperature data.

Finally, let me make clear that my fundamental aim in this story is to bring out the truth, whatever it may be.

I’m also confident that whatever the outcome will be, the LENR field has gained something in the end, if only by a significantly increased interest over the last years. And I will keep fighting for the importance of increasing the efforts on making LENR a commercially viable technology.

Andrea Rossi

(Read also the opposite hypothesis here). 

(Updated April 10, see below). Here’s my main hypothesis on the IH-Rossi affair, after a few days (BTW in line with what Torkel Nyberg/Sifferkoll argues):

– With the license agreement signed, IH had the possibility to get access to the whole IP for a world changing technology, paying ‘only’ $11.5M after the 24h Validation Test in May 2013 (as specified in the License Agreement). And they did.

– IH then never intended to perform the stipulated one-year test (Rossi claims that they continuously tried to delay it), but instead wanted to get rid of Rossi and progress with R&D, based on the IP they hade received. By not undertaking the one-year test they would save $89M (which according to the License Agreement should be paid after a successful ‘Guaranteed Performance Test’).

Thomas Darden

– With the IP in hand, and with successful demonstrations, IH could raise funding which could be used for investing in other companies in the field, e.g. Brillouin Energy (UPDATE: As far as I have understood, IH has not invested in Brillouin Energy. It has been reported that Darden invested personally in Brillouin, but before putting up IH)—companies having experts that could help them working with the technology, since they didn’t posses the skill or competence themselves to use the info obtained from Rossi. They also approached individual experts in the field, asking them to work with IH.

– However, like everyone else in this story, IH underestimated Rossi—thinking that he was just another of those confused and not-so-business-and-competition-prepared inventors out there, when he was instead extremely focused, persistent (being an former long distance runner), competitive, intelligent, intuitive, far-aiming and hardened by tough experiences in a fairly corrupt power game country like Italy; Rossi managed to find a location and a customer for the one-year test, and also completed the test (which IH maybe didn’t expect), furthermore with exceptionally good results—a COP (Coefficient of Performance) above 50, far beyond the requirement in the License Agreement for full payment, a COP>6.

– Rossi saw this coming, observing IH’s actions, including investing in other companies, filing competing patent applications with false inventors and with copied material from Bologna University’s HotCat report without permission, and probably a series of other observations, and he started to prepare the lawsuit.

– Having already gone through a similar process with the Greek company Defkalion, which systematically delayed payments, Rossi this time decided to be ready to sue immediately the day after the payment of $89M was due (five days after receiving the ERV report, as specified in the License Agreement).

– Probably, at this point, Rossi also saw the possibility to get out of a license agreement which was far to advantageous for IH, given the achieved COP of 50, and given that the agreement gave IH full sales and manufacturing rights in markets covering over 50 percent of the world’s GDP, as Torkel Nyberg notes. Thus he could regain control of manufacturing rights in the whole world, with sales rights still being licensed in some markets.

– Again, IH underestimated Rossi. They realised that the completion of the one-year test would become a problem and issued a statement, with support of the PR and crisis management firm APCO Worldwide, in order to discredit any information not coming from themselves. But they were probably not prepared for the immediate and extensive lawsuit submitted by Rossi and Leonardo Corp. IH’s situation now became delicate.

– The lawsuit will probably go on for years, but it’s interesting to note how Rossi has systematically used his blog and the Internet to spread public knowledge on his activities, challenges and progress. In my book he described how he was destroyed by Italian media during the Petroldragon affair, since media then had unchallenged power over individuals, and that this is no longer true with Internet giving everyone the possibility to reach out to the world. Therefore it’s also logic for Rossi to demand for a jury to settle the case.

– The lawsuit could possibly over time develop into a parallel to the Honeywell, Inc. v. Sperry Rand Corp. case regarding the invention of the electronic computer—a case that went on from 1967 until 1973, which some people argue was in order to keep third parties out of the computer business, with lawyers on both sides dragging out the lawsuit as long as possible.

So this is my hypothesis. I might be wrong. Maybe IH simply underestimated the difficulties to raise the necessary funding. What they raised (reportedly about $60M, excluded Chinese funds for a collaborative project in China), was enough for investing in a few other LENR technology companies and for buying some patents, but not for paying Rossi the remaining $89M. So IH found itself in a difficult situation and didn’t find a good way out (but they could at least have tried to negotiate?).

Some suggest IH was forced by the US government, in order to keep the technology in the US, free from a foreign inventor, but realistically in that case, I believe the government would gladly have paid $89M to keep things quite and clean. We’ll find out one day, maybe.

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(UPDATE April 10): As I wrote in a comment here below, thanks everyone for interesting and thought worthy comments so far. My hypothesis might not be the best, or not even close, and it’s the discussion that brings out a wider perspective.

One of the possible interpretations that have been brought up, that I also believe could be right, is that IH is correct in its statement that it has not been able to ‘substantiate’ the results claimed Rossi, meaning that they have received the technology instructions for doing it, but have not been able to make a satisfactory replication with other people’s help, at some level of efficiency (COP) that they consider Rossi has achieved. And since it’s stated in the license agreement that Rossi has to make sure that IH can successfully use the instructions transferred after the 24h Validation Test in May 2013, this would be a motive for not paying. Yet, in that situation, IH would still keep the agreement open, since they see the possibility that they could succeed to replicate with high COP, and in that case pay the $89M and go ahead with Rossi.

This would also explain why IH has approached experts in the field, to collaborate with them. One crucial question might of course be how many attempts they have made so far, and with what skill and expertise.

JT Vaughn

I just received this statement from Andrea Rossi’s US partner Industrial Heat, in an e-mail from its Vice President, JT Vaughn.

Industrial Heat acquired the rights to produce and sell E-Cat based products in South and North America, Russia, China and a few other countries, in 2012.

Update (March 10, 2016): I agree with Torkel Nyberg, arguing in his blogg Sifferkoll that this statement probably is aimed at building credibility and at defending IH and everyone involved with the one-year 1MW test, on which a third party report is expected within a few weeks, from expected attacks by people whose interests are threatened by a cheap, clean, carbon free, versatile and abundant energy source. And by people who have insisted on negating and obstructing every scientific claim regarding LENR or cold fusion in the last decades.

At a certain extent, I also think that IH wants to underline that it has undertaken a one-year test, controlled 24/7 by a respected third party institute (‘ERV’—Expert Responsible for Validation), and that this sets it a part from other companies and groups in the LENR field, from a competition point of view.

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“Statement of Industrial Heat regarding LENR Industry Developments

March 10, 2016

Industrial Heat’s objective is to make clean, safe and affordable energy available everywhere, and in doing this we want to build a company that demonstrates respect for all. LENR is a key focus of Industrial Heat and we believe multiple technologies in this sector warrant further investigation and development.
Industrial Heat has licensed, acquired or invested in several LENR technologies from around the world. We have developed a group of LENR thought leaders, and we have built a world- class engineering team. We are pleased with the technologies we have assembled and with the group of scientists and engineers working on them. Presently, the Industrial Heat team is in the midst of assessing and prioritizing the technologies in our portfolio.
Our operating philosophy is to foster scientific and engineering rigor in the development of LENR. We will thoroughly assess data derived from sound experiments which we design, control and monitor. Embracing failure as well as success is important, because we learn from both.
Unfortunately, there is a long and continuing pattern of premature proclamations in the LENR sector. Because of this, we encourage open-minded skepticism. We believe society suffers when technological advances and innovative experimentation are stifled; likewise, society and the industry suffer when results are promoted and claims are made without rigorous verification and precise measurement.
We value credibility through sound LENR research. That’s why any claims made about technologies in our portfolio should only be relied upon if affirmed by Industrial Heat and backed by reputable third parties who have verified our results in repeated experiments.
Our portfolio of work has never been stronger and we remain excited about the potential we see. This optimism is grounded in more than just hope, yet a great deal of work remains. The energy challenges of today must be met with viable, clean, safe and affordable solutions.”

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Side Note: The e-mail I received from JT Vaughn was sent in CC to an individual at the global public affairs and strategic communications consultancy firm APCO Worldwide. In Wikipedia, it says on this firm:

“Most public relations firms focus on corporate communications, but APCO is usually hired to handle sensitive political and crisis management issues. Many APCO executives are former prominent government officials, politicians and ambassadors. APCO’s clientele consists of multi-national corporations, governments, politicians, associations and nonprofit organisations.”

Update 3 (March 18, 2016): Also read this comment on APCO’s possible involvement: Something Really Bothers Me About the @ApcoWorldwide #LENR Connection! (‘Maybe IH got sort of an offer they can’t refuse…’). I need to underline that you should be careful with this kind of conspiracy theories. However, it’s interesting to note that there might be significant interests wanting to delay the introduction of commercially viable LENR based energy.

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Update 2 (March 11, 2016): Here’s another thought worthy analysis of the situation, by Torkel Nyberg, in a comment at the website E-Cat World:

I believe IH are holding back for several reasons.

1. They value the information advantage. Although this one is not new. Still, there is no product in the market yet. It is work in progress, and the less other entities know, the better for them.

2. They are negotiating continuation of the Ecat series with Rossi and rights to the technology. We dont know the fine print between “manufacturing” and “know how”. Rossi comments supports this thesis.

3. To keep Rossi in line. Releasing report would boost his credibility enormously, possibly leaving IH for Leonardo/Hydro Fusion to build a plant in southern Sweden, with his core innovation team and know how. That would move focus from IH as main LENR player to Leonardo who has the IP. Ie. not good for IH investors; they certainly would like IH to have more control over IP than they have. Rossi comments support this thesis also. As well as IH letter stating only they themselves are credible.

4. Maybe there is an issue with the ERV [Expert Responsible for Validation] entity. Especially if the COP is really good. The downside is huge and upside limited. Negotiations going on here as well?

5. They realize that regardless of ERV report there will be multitude of attacks also on IH stating fraud/scam. The better report the more attacks. It’s easy to invent scenarios of fraud, not having to prove them. Harder to prove one self innocent. This thesis is also supported by the IH letter.

From these perspectives it is actually not difficult to see why IH is holding on to the report. Hopefully Rossi, who benefits the most from a release and is in the loop can put enough pressure on IH to release it anyway.